Germany-Luxembourg

Thu, 10 Sept 2026 · forecast 1 day ahead
Live forecast

Timezone Europe/Berlin.

Spain →
Avg predicted
€115.8
Min predicted
€42.3
Max predicted
€169.1
Auction result
100%
24/24 hours published

Hourly forecast vs actual

€/MWh · local market time
ForecastActualYesterday's actual

published livePredicted at 18:57 CEST on 9 Sept. The day-ahead auction cleared 12:00 CEST, results published around 13:00.

What the grid is doing

The grid operator's day-ahead forecast: demand, and the wind and solar that meets part of it. What is left over has to come from gas, hydro and other dispatchable plants. That gap is the largest physical input to the day-ahead model for Germany-Luxembourg.

The grid operator publishes tomorrow's wind and solar forecast at about 18:00 local, after this forecast was made. It will appear here once published.

Weather behind it

forecast issued 2 days ahead, not an observation
Temperature
15.4°C
zone average, day mean
Wind at 100m
17.2m/s
turbine hub height, day mean
Solar radiation
560W/m²
peak hour

Context only. The day-ahead model uses no weather features; it reads the grid operator's wind and solar forecast above instead.

Daily accuracy, D+1, last 30 days30 live · 0 reconstructed

Model €35.2Naive €33.9-4% smaller miss

MAE is the average hourly miss in EUR/MWh. Naive repeats the same hour last week. Improvement is how much smaller our miss is.

Model MAE (live)Model MAE (reconstructed)Naive MAE

Days marked reconstructed were back-filled from the model's holdout evaluation to seed history. Days without the mark were published live, before the auction.

What drives Germany-Luxembourg's forecast

Share of the trained model's normalized feature importance, grouped by concept, at each horizon. More on the features.

D+1top feature: Residual load forecast
D+2top feature: Price 24h earlier (published D+1 auction)
D+3top feature: Same hour, 7-day mean
Grid physicsPrice memoryWeather at lead timeGas priceCalendarLong tail