Timezone Europe/Berlin.
Hourly forecast vs actual
€/MWh · local market timepublished livePredicted at 11:04 CET on 27 Oct. The day-ahead auction cleared 12:00 CET, results published around 13:00.
What the grid is doing
Wind and solar cover 31% of forecast demandThe grid operator's day-ahead forecast: demand, and the wind and solar that meets part of it. What is left over has to come from gas, hydro and other dispatchable plants. That gap is the largest physical input to the day-ahead model for Germany-Luxembourg.
Weather behind it
forecast issued 2 days ahead, not an observationContext only. The day-ahead model uses no weather features; it reads the grid operator's wind and solar forecast above instead.
Daily accuracy, D+1, last 30 days30 live · 0 reconstructed
MAE is the average hourly miss in EUR/MWh. Naive repeats the same hour last week. Improvement is how much smaller our miss is.
Days marked reconstructed were back-filled from the model's holdout evaluation to seed history. Days without the mark were published live, before the auction.
What drives Germany-Luxembourg's forecast
Share of the trained model's normalized feature importance, grouped by concept, at each horizon. More on the features.