Germany & Spain · D+1–3
Electricity prices,
three days ahead.
Wholesale forecasts for Germany and Spain. Published before the auction. Checked against actual prices, every day.
Today, Thu, 1 Oct 2026
Today, Thu, 1 Oct 2026
full charge
What's moving prices
The model's main inputs for Thu, 1 Oct 2026. Residual load is demand minus wind and solar; what remains must come from gas, hydro and other dispatchable plants. The sparkline under each zone is that same day hour by hour: the stacked band is wind and solar, the line above it demand.
Today across the map
Zones coloured by the day's average predicted price. Knowing these earlier, and knowing D+2 and D+3 at all, which almost nobody publishes for free, is worth real money to anyone who can shift load: battery operators, industrials, EV fleets, and households on dynamic tariffs.
Scored against reality
MAE is the average hourly miss in EUR/MWh. Naive repeats the same hour last week. Improvement is how much smaller our miss is. Last 30 days.
Live days were forecast and published before the auction; the rest of the scored days are reconstructed from the model's holdout evaluation.
Live days were forecast and published before the auction; the rest of the scored days are reconstructed from the model's holdout evaluation.
What drives the forecast
Each bar shows the share of a model's normalized feature importance: how much predictive weight the trained model puts on each group of signals (importance, not causality). One day out, grid physics leads: forecast demand against wind and solar. Two days out, price memory takes over, because yesterday's auction has published and becomes the strongest clue. Three days out the model leans on the weekly price pattern, with weather and gas filling in.
Forecast demand minus forecast wind and solar. When the wind blows and the sun shines, expensive gas plants stay off and prices fall.
What the market cleared at yesterday, last week, and at this hour over the past seven days. Markets are creatures of habit.
Temperature, wind speed and solar radiation from forecasts issued two or three days out, exactly as they looked at prediction time.
TTF front-month futures. Gas plants set the marginal price in most European hours, so gas moves the whole curve.
Weekday or weekend, public holidays, hour of day. Demand follows human routine.
Today, the right four hours are worth €8.90 per charge.
Charge in the forecast's cheap window instead of the evening peak. Same battery, same range, a different bill.
1 nights priced from real auctions · on pace for €328 this October
Straight from the hourly curves above, at wholesale prices; dynamic tariffs add network fees and taxes on top. The same logic prices EV fleets, flexible industrial load, and home batteries.